Two weeks after the last SNA-HTS clashes, the latter is solidifying command of Afrin region. While military, HTS largely withdrew back to Idlib, and a formal agreement between HTS & SNA militias has not been published, local sources indicate a new power balance is emerging.
HTS’ security bodies, allied with SNA’s Hamza, Suleiman Shah, and Faylaq al-Sham, now have control of Afrin region, at the expense of the Levant Front-led Third Legion. Recent incidences of HTS raiding properties hunting for Third Legion fighters have also been recorded.
HTS increasingly seeks to present an image of stable governance, publicly contrasting itself to SNA/SIG and the armed chaos that prevailed under them. HTS issued a message to all Afrin residents, stating, “our focus and appreciation lies with the Arab and Kurdish people it is only right that we protect them and provide services”.
HTS has also said that militiamen must not interfere in civil institutions. Yet, reports emerging from Jindires say HTS has been stealing olives, demanding villagers pay ‘zakat’ & forcing women to wear headscarves.
Seeking to establish their domination in Afrin and connect it to Idlib, HTS have been trying to exclude SNA factions from cross-border trade and smuggling activities. Afrin’s geographical position makes it a strategic location for smuggling between Syria and Turkey.
Meanwhile, the Turkish army is preparing to establish new military posts between Idlib and Afrin regions, near Deir Ballut and al-Ghazawiya, adding to the 74 military posts Turkey already has in Idlib countryside.
With the SNA on shaky ground as a military entity, Afrin’s Syrian Interim Government (SIG) and Syrian Opposition Council (SOC) have shown their inability to intercede as a political authority. SIG and SOC have been largely left off the negotiating table with HTS and Turkey.
At the same time, the longevity and stability of the current arrangements are unclear, hence the future of HTS, with the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) as its political branch, as the dominant power in Afrin is far from assured.
HTS, formerly al-Nusra front, an al-Qaeda spin-off, remains on the US’ terrorist list. The US State Department recently aired its concerns over the emerging “instability in Syria, [and] the ability of extremist groups, of terrorist groups, to use Syrian territory to form a base”.
At the same time, HTS-Turkey relations appear as strong as ever, with Turkey continuing to fund settlement construction in Idlib, provide economic aid, and strengthen its military posts.