{"id":5958,"date":"2018-12-25T06:45:53","date_gmt":"2018-12-25T06:45:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/?p=5958"},"modified":"2018-12-25T07:24:28","modified_gmt":"2018-12-25T07:24:28","slug":"for-erdogan-after-feasting-comes-the-digestion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/archives\/5958","title":{"rendered":"For Erdo\u011fan, after feasting comes the digestion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Both U.S. and foreign pundits are denouncing Trump\u2019s Syria withdrawal decision as a catastrophe . It is most likely a bad decision, time will tell, but it is not a catastrophe. The departure of Secretary of Defense James Mattis points to the real catastrophe \u2013 the ascendance in the Trump national security team of those most aligned with his go-it-alone impulses. Their ascendance will affect U.S.-Turkish relations more than the long-desired yet abruptly announced withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, some terms need to be defined, and the carefully crafted letter of resignation <\/a>must be kept in mind, for it reveals much from a close reading.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within the U.S. national security community there are many points of view about how the U.S. should engage with others to enhance the security of the nation. In very broad terms, many are like Mattis or General David Petraeus (ret.) \u2013 coalition builders. They value allies and coalition partners for their particular contributions to collective security. They realise, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, that the only thing more difficult in fighting a war alongside many allies is fighting one without any. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The go-it-aloners like U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton and senior policy advisor Stephen Miller (who are not isolationists strictly speaking) see alliances and coalitions of the willing as constraining the freedom of action of the most powerful military and largest economic power in the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are convinced that the United States can dispense with allies and coalition partners by using its economic power to induce or coerce other nations to follow the U.S. lead. They also eschew participation in multi-lateral institutions, which they realise, reduce U.S. leverage in a way that bilateral arrangements do not.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A struggle has been ongoing <\/a>in the Trump White House between these two types. Mattis\u2019 resignation letter clearly indicates that he, a coalition builder, has been supplanted by those more aligned with Trump\u2019s go-it-alone impulses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For two years, Mattis worked <\/a>to keep the United States engaged with allies and partners to enhance U.S. national security. His departure heralds a time when Trump\u2019s foreign relations impulses will enjoy freer expression. Make no mistake, Mattis saw value in alliances and partnerships because of their benefit to the United States, not because of some globalist vision of a borderless world with no regard for national sovereignty. He values coalitions of like-minded states because he knows collaboration in those coalitions enhances the security of his country. For him, coalition building in a dangerous world is a patriotic duty<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, most coalition builders assume that the United States should lead from the front, given U.S. worldwide security interests, economic resources, and military capabilities. Such an assumption of leadership does not, however, imply either disrespect for allies and partners or a willingness to have U.S. freedom of action constrained by those partners. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, President George H.W. Bush put together a coalition to include Arab states to liberate Kuwait. His decision to end the fighting before taking Baghdad was not evidence of constraint imposed by others, it was evidence of H.W. Bush\u2019s leadership in determining that the coalition goal, liberating Kuwait, had been realised, and regime change would open a Pandora\u2019s Box of unforeseeable consequences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has allowed U.S. forces to work with others against ISIS only as long as Trump saw threat from ISIS to the American homeland. Convinced as he is that the United States can secure its frontiers with travel restrictions, enhanced security technology, and physical barriers along U.S. borders , he no longer sees a need for the United States to remain in the fight against a threat to others. ISIS inspired attacks occurring in Europe (which Trump ascribes to the EU\u2019s liberal refugee and migrant policies) are not a concern for him \u2013 let others protect themselves as the United States protects itself.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Bush, who understood the need to stand-up to naked aggression if one had the means to do so, Trump does not recognise that he sends a message of disdain and abandonment to allies and like-minded partners when he emphasises America First to such a degree that it becomes Only America. Authoritarian regime leaders in China, Iran, Russia, and increasingly Turkey, also hear that message. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"President<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

President Trump in a cabinet meeting in October 2918. AP Photo\/Manuel Balce Ceneta<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Mattis, he misinterprets his patriotic duty to enhance the national security of the United States as rejecting coalition building as he fails to see the advantages that accrue from collaboration with other countries that share the liberal democratic and free market values on which American power rests.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, with the threat from ISIS to the United States almost completely eliminated, Trump agrees with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan to remove forces that he (Trump) has wanted to remove from the first day he took office. From his perspective, the troubles of others (ISIS inspired attacks in Europe and elsewhere) should be taken care of by others. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump does not see that staying engaged with like-minded partners to thoroughly eradicate the threat of ISIS, and thereby send a message of resolve against international terrorism to the whole world, enhances U.S. national security. He is wrong about that, but myopia on Syria and ISIS is less worrisome than the ascendancy of those who eschew coalition building for U.S. solitary action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey\u2019s pliant press is touting Trump\u2019s decision as a success for Erdo\u011fan\u2019s tactics of threatening speeches and anti-American rhetoric, portraying him as having bested Trump. To paraphrase Churchill again, after feasting comes the digestion \u2013 Erdo\u011fan may find his invasion of or incursion into Kurdish-held northeast Syria not as easily accomplished as he claims it will be.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be out of character for Trump to have agreed to pull U.S. forces from Syria to placate Erdo\u011fan without having received some promises in exchange. Whatever they might be, Trump will expect those promises to be fulfilled, as Erdo\u011fan will soon learn if he does not deliver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the compliant press and parliament in Turkey, U.S. media and Congress will not quietly accept Turkey\u2019s pounding of erstwhile U.S. battlefield allies, the YPG\/SDF. As seen in the Khashoggi murder case, the U.S. Congress may not be able to reverse Trump\u2019s courses of action, but it certainly can bring to light many matters the administration would rather be kept in the dark. Turkish efforts to induce the extradition of U.S.-based Turkish preacher Fethullah G\u00fclen outside normal channels, plans to purchase Russian S-400 missiles, non-compliance with sanctions against Iran are just three areas in which Congress can express its displeasure with Erdo\u011fan\u2019s actions<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Mattis valued NATO Allies. Like the Special Representative for Syria Engagement , Ambassador Jim Jeffrey, he valued Turkey \u2019s membership in NATO and a close U.S.-Turkey relationship. With those who are more aligned with Trump\u2019s impulse s to go it alone apparently in the ascendancy, Turkey may find fewer voices in the White House calling for toleration of Erdo\u011fan\u2019s ongoing anti-American rhetoric and hostility toward liberal democratic and free market values.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Edward G. Stafford<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Both U.S. and foreign pundits are denouncing Trump\u2019s Syria withdrawal decision as a catastrophe . It is most likely a bad decision, time will tell, but it is … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5954,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5958","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5958"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5958\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5960,"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5958\/revisions\/5960"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vdc-nsy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}